This is my open response to Jarhead’s How Paranoid Should We Be? post.

****************************************

Heeeere it comes …. SOLAR STORM!

Doesn’t that have a nice ring to it, “solar storm”? Sssssay it with me now – ssssssssssolar STORM! That’s awesome. And it is, of course, HAPPENING!

Scope this news vid, scope it now:

As our doomsday prophets have predicted, the electrical grid will soon be destroyed, and society will, of course, collapse. Pandemonium and anarchy will set in. Everyone for themselves. We’re all gonna die!

Now c’mon, do I really think this solar dust up is going to fry the grid like an EMP? No. But just because I’m not that paranoid, doesn’t mean the thought isn’t there. After all, it is the biggest flare up in 6 years, and another solar storm could happen at any moment, another …. Solar SUPERstorm! Oh yeah, I’m talking about the solar storm of 1859, the Carrington Event! Of course, it wasn’t a big deal then, back when we didn’t use electronic banking, when everything from our cars to our phones didn’t contain mini-computers, back when we had FARMS all over the place, not grocery stores carrying food from far away delivered just in time.

You trust National Geographic, yes?

*hint – nod yes*

They asked the question – What if the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today? In summary – SERIOUS SHTF! I recommend reading the entire article, but if you’re only going to read a clip, read THIS:

“We live in a cyber cocoon enveloping the Earth,” Baker said. “Imagine what the consequences might be.”

Of particular concern are disruptions to global positioning systems (GPS), which have become ubiquitous in cell phones, airplanes, and automobiles, Baker said. A $13 billion business in 2003, the GPS industry is predicted to grow to nearly $1 trillion by 2017.

In addition, Baker said, satellite communications—also essential to many daily activities—would be at risk from solar storms.

“Every time you purchase a gallon of gas with your credit card, that’s a satellite transaction,” he said.

But the big fear is what might happen to the electrical grid, since power surges caused by solar particles could blow out giant transformers. Such transformers can take a long time to replace, especially if hundreds are destroyed at once, said Baker, who is a co-author of a National Research Council report on solar-storm risks.

The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Cliver agrees: “They don’t have a lot of these on the shelf,” he said.

The eastern half of the U.S. is particularly vulnerable, because the power infrastructure is highly interconnected, so failures could easily cascade like chains of dominoes.

“Imagine large cities without power for a week, a month, or a year,” Baker said. “The losses could be $1 to $2 trillion, and the effects could be felt for years.”

This latest solar explosion might not do it, but - it’s only a matter of time.

Should I be better prepared than I am right now? Yes. Does knowing that make me paranoid? A little.

- Ranger Man

No related posts.

Before I get to today’s post on 7 BILLION freaking people inhabiting the planet, let me take care of some random thoughts/mentions:

• Once a month I like to thank all of you loyal readers that use the Amazon search bar in the right sidebar to do your Amazon searching (Christmas season is coming). The Amazon commission generated from your shopping this way helps keep this site afloat – thank you.
• Likewise, thanks to Directive 21 for renewing their ad. They sell great Berkey water purifier products.
• Thanks as well to Forge Survival Supply – a new advertiser. Check them out and their blog, Survival Cache.
• Here is a great new prepper product – Dentist in a Box, a dental emergency kit. I contacted the company. Unfortunately it’s not yet for sale in the United States as they’re seeking FDA approval, but they expect this approval soon. I hope it gets approved. The kit would go great with Where There Is No Dentist.

Now on to the post …. Got People?

In case you missed the news, or rely on SHTF Blog to bring you the most important headlines (heaven forbid), the world’s population is estimated to have just passed the 7 billion mark. An Associated Press article states:

Demographers say it took until 1804 for the world to reach its first billion people and a century more until it hit 2 billion in 1927. Soon the numbers began to cascade: 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in 1987, 6 billion in 1998. The United Nations estimates the world population will reach 8 billion by 2025 and 10 billion by 2083.

From a long-term prepper perspective, and I’m talking about challenges facing the next generation, how can population growth like this possibly be sustainable? Answer – it can’t. There are only so many resources to feed and supply so many people. Society used to think the oceans were so big and vast that dumping trash into it posed no threat. We now know that isn’t the case. Society used to think space was so vast that it didn’t matter if we left a bunch of space trash circling the Earth. We now know that isn’t the case. We must also know the Earth is only so big.

A Christian Science Monitor article states that there are two ways to mitigate the effects of an ever expanding global population, 1) empower women to take full control over their pregnancies, meaning help them have only intended pregnancies, and 2) consumer fewer resources and waste less food.

Do YOU see both of those factors happening? Accuse me of being a glass-is-half-empty person, but I don’t. Governments want people to have more and more kids, because growing economies depend on it. Population decline is terrible for any capitalist economy. The premise that we need to waste less food highlights the notion that we can’t just keep consuming more, we need to make smarter use of what we have. More people = more demand on everything. More people = greater food, water and energy demand volatility. Things become more and more fragile until …. break.

Global population growth doesn’t keep me up at night as a threat, but I wonder what the world will be like when my children are my age, or my grandchildren are my age.

- Ranger Man

No related posts.

You may remember from Monday’s brief post that I ran into some problems with my SHTF power-outage plan last weekend.  So what happened?

About 9:00 am or so the power went out – right smack in the middle of my shower.  Mrs Jarhead was busy folding clothes in my son’s room and hadn’t noticed yet.  The house was warm, the fridge and the freezer would keep for awhile, there were no immediate concerns, so instead of hooking things up right away we decided to do some chores in town first.  There have been times when I’ve gone out and got everything hooked up and as soon as it was running the power came back on.

We got home around 1:00 or so and the power wasn’t on yet, so I pulled the generator out and got it running.  First note:  make sure you start your generator monthly.  I had to crank on it for awhile before it started whereas this summer it started after only one pull.

Once it was running I had to go looking for extension cords, surge protectors and the like to get my appliances hooked up.  I wanted to have the freezer, fridge, pellet stove, some lights, and the laptop or the TV and DVD player set up.  Everything worked fine except the pellet stove.

The good thing is that I have a kerosene heater as a backup and since the temperature didn’t go down below 29 degrees it stayed nice and warm in the house; however, that did not solve the problem of the generator not running the pellet stove.

I have booked appointments  with a couple of electricians to come over to the house for a visit.  One of the things I’ve wanted to do for awhile is set up a transfer switch, so the generator will run directly into the house.  It’s going to cost some money:  quotes ranged from $600 to $800, but I’d rather have a trained electrician do it right.   Basically what a transfer switch does is tie your generator into your house’s electrical system so that when the power goes out you don’t have a whole tangle of cables running through your house like a construction zone.

Another good thing about the transfer switch is it will also allow me to use my water pump, so I can draw water directly up from the well.  Awesome!

If you have the money another alternative is to have a much larger system such as a 8kw backup generator or higher with fail-over installed.  These generators are usually propane and will usually run much of your house instead of just a few appliances.  Some of you mentioned this in comments on Monday’s post.  The downside is that these systems start at around $4,000 – at least that’s what I’ve got for quotes so far.  If you have the cash to throw at a system like though, it’s a very good way to go.

So What Worked?

With all this talk you might think it was a total failure.  Quite the contrary!  I had plenty of water for flushing toilets in the form of my rain barrels outside.  I had plenty of potable water in the basement for drinking not to mention my Royal Berkey Water filter that I didn’t have to break out.

Despite the problem with the pellet stove the generator ran the fridge, freezer, lights, and the TV with no problem at all.

My neighbors came over with their two-year old daughter and her and my son played in the living room.  They weren’t quite as prepared as we were, so we opened our door and welcomed them into our home and they stayed until around 8:00 pm.  By that point my two year old son – who hadn’t napped all day – was in complete melt-down mode.  After they left he fell asleep on the kitchen floor before we could get him into bed.  Talk about a tired little boy!

Lessons Learned

I should have checked the generator with the things I wanted to run ahead of time instead of assuming that because a few power tools and some other small gadgets worked I was all set.

While having a wood stove would be the ideal that’s not in the cards in the immediate future, so getting the pellet stove running on the generator is on the docket for this week.  The electrician will check out the generator while he’s over and let me know what’s going on.

This one may become a non-issue with the installation of a transfer switch, but I’ll throw it out there:  if you’re going to use a generator without a transfer switch know exactly what appliances you want to run, and have cables and surge protectors to run from the generator to the applicances stored in an easy to get to spot.  I ran around stealing surge protectors from different areas of the house and when the power came back on I had to put it all back again.  Not a huge deal,  just a pain in the butt.  If I don’t get the transfer switch I’ll definitely put one of these kits together.

Luckily the power was out for less than twenty-four hours here, which gave me time to assess the situation without causing a huge disruption and it gives me time to get my ducks in a row before the next big storm comes rolling through.

Long Term SHTF

Let’s say TSHTF for a long period of time measured in months, or even years, instead of a week or two.  What then?  Unless you had the means for a resupply of gasoline, propane, or whatever it is you use for backup electricity, you’re going to run out.

Your best bet for sustainable electricity would be solar or wind, hydro electricity, or even geothermal, but that topic is for another day.  Again, I’ve got to stop before this becomes the never-ending post.

So…

What are you plans for when the lights go out?  Are you ready for when TSHTF?  Are you sure?

-Jarhead Survivor

No related posts.