As predicted in this very forum back in June, the rise of Donald Trump has been many things, not the least of which is entertaining. Hurricane Donald has had massive success shining a 100,000 lumen spotlight on the serious rift within the Republican Party as well as tightly winding the mainstream media’s undies. Two satisfying outcomes for this American. But those are far from his only accomplishments, one unintended consequence has also come with the rise of Trump.
By Professor Liberty Mize, a contributing author of SHTFBlog
He has inadvertently laid the groundwork for a legitimate independent run this November. Shockingly that ticket will not be headlined by Trump himself. Consider the following hypothetical. If we enter late April and Trump still has a stranglehold on the Republican nomination (still a massive if), and if Hillary is indicted (a shockingly less unlikely if), the vast majority of voters in this electorate will find themselves without a candidate. This is based on high negatives for each of the aforementioned major party alternatives.
Also Read: Comb Over Chaos
This will force a “none of the above” wave that this country hasn’t seen since Richard Pryor ran for Mayor in Brewster’s Millions. Combine that atmosphere with ballot access rules that allow independent candidates the ability to defer a decision until late spring/early summer and things could get interesting.
How can we be sure?
Consider the candidacy of Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger. While the circumstances surrounding their rise to office are nuanced, three key thing fueled both:
1. The ability to get on the ballot without facing a legitimate primary
2. A fundamental dislike by voters of the other candidates (The recall of an incumbent in Arnold’s case)
3. A fiscally conservative, but socially liberal message
Together these three things allowed each to beat a path to the sweet spot of American politics. Polls show that the majority of Americans are fiscally conservative and laissez-faire on social issues. Yet today these people have no outlet. You can’t support abortion and sniff a republican primary, and you can’t tout free markets and economic reason and capture the fancy of democrats. By carefully spinning those into a platform a candidate could re-configure the electoral map and be competitive in every state.
So Why Don’t More Independents Run?
Because to run is a fool’s errand. In national elections roughly 40% of the people will vote for their party regardless of the nominee. So even if you capture the vast middle, you are still short on votes taken by the major party nominees. That is unless the base actually hates their nominee or that nominee was recently led away in leg irons.
The Perfect Storm
Therefore we have the perfect storm. Pissed voters, crappy nominees and a real mess to clean up in DC. It is a formula that has Mayor Bloomberg, Jim Webb and even Joe Biden putting out feelers and seriously considering an insurgency. Bloomberg’s ability to self-fund means he could be a particularly serious player. Elections are expensive and party infrastructure and influence are key to fundraising and building a successful organization. None of this applies to him. Bloomberg need only crack his piggy bank and shake out a few hundred million bucks and he could be in business. The others face longer odds, and there may be others considering a run that have yet to surface. Could someone Ross Perot their way to a legitimate shot at the white house? Stranger things have happened, and if anyone has those ambitions this is certainly the year to try.
The Bottom Line
Again the above is based on hypotheticals. Hillary’s indictment could very well be squashed by the justice department or be spun as a right-wing conspiracy, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The FBI doesn’t mess around and reportedly has 100s of agents on the case and the evidence is overwhelming. If the justice department fails to indict they could go public and either force Obama’s hand, or just destroy Hillary.
On the Republican side Trump is also far from home free. Cruz will likely win Iowa, Trump will win New Hampshire and it is anyone’s guess after that. But if he sweeps the SEC vote we could very well be headed for Trump as the nominee. In an era where a populist anti-establishment wave has carried Ron Paul, Trump and even Bernie Sanders to prominence– anything is possible. Who might be able to tap into that and ride the wave all the way to DC is really anyone’s guess. Regardless I’ll likely still be endorsing “none of the above”.
The views, opinions and positions expressed by the author are his alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions or positions of SHTFBlog.com
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