Here is a link I picked up over at Survival Blog a few days ago – Why is ‘food security’ sparking unrest? In classic Rawles fashion, he drops the link in his “Odds ‘n Sods” section and doesn’t expand on it, leaving us survivalist-blogger wannabes to offer our own twisted sense of TEOTWAWKI wisdom to the story.
First, let’s clarify what “food security” is, at least as defined by the illustrious, all knowing, extremely effective United Nations (*gag*). Food security is “a nation having enough food to reliably feed its population.”
“The most urgent issue confronting humanity in the next 50 years is not climate change or the financial crisis, it is whether we can achieve and sustain such a harvest,” said Julian Cribb, scientist and author of The Coming Famine.
The UN predicts that by the year 2050 the globe will be home to more than 9 billion people. In a recent presentation to The World Congress of Soil Science, Cribb said global demand for food is going to more than double over the next half century.
In a worst-case scenario, Cribb describes a world where famine has broken out in several locations, leading to wars and hundreds of millions of refugees wandering the globe looking for food and shelter. That scenario is avoidable, he said, as long as governments make policy changes in their approach toward agriculture.
Let’s read what Cribb says again – “as long as governments make policy changes in their approach toward agriculture.” Suuuuure, during a time of global economic hardship, dwindling resources and expansion of nuclear programs, countries will just come together to sing “Kumbaya” and address the coming famine. Color me not-very-optimistic, color me olive drab.
Cribb said unlike most other countries, China is aware of the potential risk to food security and has been taking steps to ensure it is prepared. That includes coming up with domestic policies to secure water supplies. But Beijing is also looking outside China by securing agricultural supplies in other regions, such as Africa.
“We have to reinvent the way we grow food and reinvent our diet if we are to sustain the food supply through the peak in human numbers and demand,” said Cribb.
China is finally addressing its water issues because it’s coming out of the third world and NEEDS secure water supplies to fuel its economic engine and prevent civil unrest, but the key note here is that China has been securing land in Africa to grow food for its own population, because they’re already maxed out.
Then we read this from a Wall Street Journal article entitled Farmland: the Next Boom?
Emmanuel Jayet, head of agricultural commodities research at SG Securities, says there are still 450 million additional hectares that the world could farm. Yet most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, where infrastructure—and political stability—have sometimes left something to be desired. The picture is similar when it comes to food from the seas. The world’s wild fisheries are overfished, perhaps terminally so.
As more people struggle for food, these countries’ farmland will become their oil fields, i.e. their cash cow that everyone will fight over. We are already reading articles about discontent between African countries and others wanting to lease their land. Countries are promising food and infrastructure in exchange for long-term land lease agreements.
So let me get this clear …. as the global population continues to expand exponentially, we’re going to bring more third world countries into the modern era, build their infrastructure, deliver electricity AND use oil-based fertilizers to generate more and more food …. ALL while we get closer and closer to peak oil?
What the hell is going on here? Don’t people realize there’s just too many people inhabiting this planet? What will life be like for my kids – for my grandkids!? Do you want to know? It’ll look like Soylent Green – “Here come the scoops!”
Gawd, there is absolutely no relief in sight. Everyone go use my Amazon search bar to do some shopping. I need a couple hundred thousand dollars so I can buy farmland for my kids.
Do YOU got a long-term get grub plan?
– Ranger Man