A few blogs have been linking to the recent Peak Oil Alarm Revealed by Secret Official Talks article reported in The Observer, where it states:
Speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch than they have admitted has been fueled by the revelation that they are canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about “peak oil.”
Well duh – any government that imports more oil than it produces had better be worried. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to recognize that dwindling resources, increasing global population and the rapid development of third world countries will wreak havoc on global energy systems. The Earth can’t support everyone in the world living the American lifestyle. It’s just not gonna happen.
Then we get that news article coupled with the recent CNN piece entitled U.S. Electricity Blackouts Skyrocketing, where it states:
Experts on the nation’s electricity system point to a frighteningly steep increase in non-disaster-related outages affecting at least 50,000 consumers.
The two articles are indirectly related and the latter, discussing the need to update the nation’s power grid, highlights the problem we face. At a time when oil supplies are dwindling, we are increasing energy demands. I know, “alternative energy is the answer, duuuude.” Look, I’m an environmental idealist as much as the next non-showering granola hippie …. well not quite, but I’m with you in spirit. Except I’m also a realist, and while alternative energies need to be developed, there is absolutely no realistic plan to bring enough of these resources online to meet present and future demand.
So as the friction between increasing energy demand and declining resources heats up, something must give. It’s obvious – if a trend is unsustainable, it will not be sustained. The severity of the repercussions will depend on a few factors:
- the economy – the longer it sits in the toilet waiting to get flushed, the longer the energy crisis can be avoided.
- alternative energy – yes, it has a role – but until oil reaches a price where these sources are economically competitive, we won’t see it on the scale it needs to happen. Government incentives are not enough.
- third world countries – everyone wants a flat panel television, fancy computers and a new car (I want a new truck). Imagine the size of China’s population suddenly living the American lifestyle ….. exactly. The speed at which these populations increase their standard of living correlates directly with the speed of energy supply/demand friction.
- conservation – are YOU ready to power down?
So when energy supply and demand enter the TEOTWAWKI boxing ring, it’s going to play out in one of two ways:
- a slow slide into darkness (pun intended) where high energy prices perpetuate economic doldrums, or
- a faster, more abrupt collision.
Pray for a slow slide! A slow slide, while difficult and painful, would give society time to adapt. We would have time to adjust our lifestyles, develop new energy conservation technologies and new energy resources. A faster, abrupt collision would be much more rough …. got a garden and goats?
I’m of the view that a slow slide is more likely and that demand levels will get reduced when it costs too much money to run air conditioners all day long in schools, office buildings and homes. Got sweat?
City street lights shining all night long and business signs lit even after closing will all get switched off. Evening sports game on well lit fields will become a thing of the past. Carpooling will become a necessity. People will move closer to work. Smaller cars, motorcycles and bicycles will surge in popularity. The civilian Hummer will be a thing of the past. Clothes will be hung out to dry. People, accustomed to multi-media distractions, will find enjoyment in the simpler things in life. It almost sounds kinda …. dreamy ……… pray for a slow slide ….
– Ranger Man
5 comments
Ranger Man Buddy,
this is excellent thinking and well presented. when people lie in bed and think about their personal end of the world (and recent ‘discussions’ have shown lots of people do), this should be their first and last thoughts because it almost certainly is gonna happen. In the cold dark UK there is already an increasing trend to micro generate via panels and wind power. I was surprised on a recent visit to the sunny US to see NO (check again…None at all) houses on a development with solar panels. Plenty of SUVs thought….Keep up the writing BTW. Its always excellent
The alternatives are inefficient and expensive. But worse they use tremendous amounts of energy to create. China just finished building the worlds largest solar (PV) panel manufacturing facility in the world and they built a coal fired power plant right beside it to provide the energy they need to build them. If there was ever a better opportunity to prove that alternatives work this was it. The coal fired electric plant gives you electricity at about $.02 per kWh. Solar panels give you the same energy at about $.30-$.60 per kWh. Not even close. But if energy costs go up and the cost of energy from the coal fired plant simply doubled the cost of the solar panels would double and thus the cost of the energy they produce will double. You have made an assumption that one of these factors would change dramatically but not affect other factors. The ONLY reason solar panels are being installed at all is because of HUGE subsidies and laws forcing utilities to install alternative energy sources. It is not happening because it is practical or efficient. Sadly this same problem exists with every alternative (except nuclear). There are NO promising alternatives. There is no early research or indication of any promising alternatives on the horizon. It is unlikely there will be any reasonable replacement for oil, NG and coal. There are almost 7 billion people on earth and without cheap energy the earth probably couldn’t support 1/10th that number. When cheap energy disappears a lot of humans will disappear as well and they won’t go quietly. Most people will not willingly freeze and starve to death in the dark. Everything will change post cheap energy. Adapting will mean fighting and taking what you need form anyone who has it until the world’s population is small enough to support the small bands of hunter gatherers.
We’re already working on powering down on a daily basis around here. Drying clothes outside, handwashing dishes, unplugging stuff that’s not in use and so on can help you and your family adapt to using less electricity. Cash we’re saving on the electric bill goes right to preps! And, I just have to add, IMO the zombie thing has been done to death. No pun intended.
I think we’re already in the midst of a slow decline. I don’t think it will get faster than it is now, although we may look back on this time a decade from now and think, “wow! It all happened so fast,” but at the moment, it’s just going to creep along, one day after another, with each day finding us all just a wee-bit poorer, until one day we look up and realize that we’re at that point we, survivalists, have been waiting for. I think we’ve been given this golden opportunity … right now … to make some changes in the way we do things, and I just hope enough people will make the changes that need to be made so that we don’t completely destroy the earth in our attempts to sustain the unsustainable.
But, for the record, it really isn’t about finding alterntive energy. We need to give up the idea that we can continue to live in our highly mechanized society, and those things that can be done by hand, probably should be.
Oh, and in answer to your question: Got a garden? Check! Goat? Nope, but can I substitute some chickens, ducks and rabbits?
Thanks for the post Ranger.
I disagree with alot of it. If you are curious, come on over and check out the review I did on it.
DW